[kwlug-disc] Is MS humbling down?

[john at netdirect.ca]

kwlug-disc-bounces at kwlug.org wrote on 08/13/2009 04:22:05 PM:
> From: Khalid Baheyeldin <kb at 2bits.com>
> 
> Companies do change, and "reform" themselves when the market forces can 
> no longer be fought.

Small private companies can do this much easier than mature publicly owned 
companies. Public companies often have to hit rock-bottom in order to 
think reform is a good idea, or be forced to by legal decisions or 
sweeping technology changes. 

> Some may remember what monopoly IBM was in the 80s and early 90s,
> and how arrogant, manipulative and monopolistic they were. The acronym
> FUD was developed to describe their tactics. They had a choking monopoly
> on mainframes. Even those who made compatible mainframe hardware had
> to go back to IBM for the operating system and tools.

I thought it was an anti-trust that forced IBM to change its ways.
 
> ...

> After Microsoft realizes that their monopoly is over and they can no 
longer 
> choke the market and dictate what users can or cannot use.
> 
> They will follow IBM's path and become more open and friendly to 
openness.
> 
> One or two others may fill its boots and become the big bad monopoly. 
Will
> it be Google? Or Apple?

Google has a significant monopoly on search already, don't they? They also 
seem to have a lock on our personal information. The idea of Google 
scanning my email in order to market products to me is unconscionable. 

I think the current race is for Web Services. Although I don't see myself 
using "web services" I'm willing to bet others will. Their Chrome browser 
and OS is a play to expand web services. If a significant number of 
application developers embrace web services and design their product for 
Google, they could become a monopoly. Hopefully those programmers will 
have learned from all those sorry MS developers who find themselves locked 
into MS and build an abstraction layer so their app works on multiple 
platforms.
 
> I don't think that Microsoft is at this point yet though.  They 
> still think they
> can dictate, and they don't have a real single unified desktop that is 
eating
> their lunch (yet).

I agree. Even if there are visionaries at Microsoft who can see the 
inevitable, they are still making lots of money with Windows and MS 
Office. Even if it's dwindling they can still make more money by ignoring 
Linux than embracing it. The execs are bonused on short term goals so even 
if they know the market will drop out from under them in the long term, 
they would still try to earn the short term bonus, probably even at the 
expense of long term success.

It would guess that it will take a board decision at Microsoft to decide 
to scrap Windows. This won't happen until there has been so much loss with 
Windows and MS Office that they have no choice.


John Van Ostrand
Net Direct Inc.
 
CTO, co-CEO
564 Weber St. N. Unit 12
map
 
Waterloo, ON N2L 5C6
 
john at netdirect.ca
Ph: 866-883-1172
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Linux Solutions / IBM Hardware
Fx: 519-883-8533